Another disappointing loss in a disappointing season.

I guess finding the words to describe Milwaukee’s 100-85 drubbing at the hands of the Washington Wizards wasn’t that difficult.

As Coach Scott Skiles put it after the game, the Bucks were “pretty much dominated all over the floor.”  After the game the Wizards were talking about which Nick Young dunk was their favorite.  They had fun during the game and looked like a confident group.

They were everything the Bucks weren’t.

Milwaukee’s offense wasn’t as bad as it’s been sometimes this season, but was still terrible.  Shots clanged all over the place, wide-open threes were missed and players continued to pump-fake and hesitate instead of making strong moves.  As they often have this season, Milwaukee just looked old.  Especially when compared to the bouncy Wizards, looking to get out and run constantly.

Milwaukee occasionally looks to outlet and do something, but aside from Brandon Jennings and Corey Maggette, the Bucks have few players who seem to thrive getting up and down the court.  Rarely do you see Milwaukee get good looks after missed shots by the opponent the way the Wizards often did on Wednesday.

And lately, rarely do you see the Bucks win.

Offense

Jennings seemed fed up with Milwaukee’s stagnant half court offense during the fourth quarter and catapulted himself into the paint and towards the rim over and over.  For his efforts, he was rewarded with a 15-point loss, but the Bucks did win the fourth quarter.  Jennings finished the evening just nine of 24 from the field, but six of 10 at the rim.  In other encouraging shooting news for Jennings, he made two of four from 16-23 feet.  Now, if he can just get back his three-point stroke (one of six on Wednesday), he’ll be a difficult scorer to stop again.

• Andrew Bogut scored eight of the Bucks first 10 points.  And four of their last 75.  Is it 2007 again?  The line yesterday was that Milwaukee went away from Bogut once they fell behind and didn’t have time to set him up.  But Milwaukee went away from Bogut Tuesday against Toronto when they held a lead for the majority of the game.  The “get the ball to Bogut” gameplan seems to be no more reliable than Bogut himself.

• Milwaukee’s never a big turnover team, and they had just 12 on Wednesday, but against a team like the Wizards it was important that they limited their turnovers even more.  Washington took advantage more often than not, scoring 18 points off turnovers.

Defense

So much for all that fire from Tuesday night’s victory over the Raptors carrying over.  Milwaukee allowed the Wizards 47.4% shooting and saw them get out into the open court repeatedly.  When they weren’t doing that, they were looking to Nick Young and he was responding with made jumpshots and big dunks.  Young made 10 of 19 shots and finished with 26 points.

• Washington was hitting from deep (10-16 3FG) and at the line (18-20 FT), while Milwaukee was incapable of doing either (4-14 3FG and 5-12 FT).  The Bucks won’t win many games when their opponents shoot that well and will never win a game when they shoot that poorly while their opponents shoot well.

Final Thoughts

The same old song and dance.  Milwaukee’s back to 11 games under .500.  There are some easy games still left on the schedule, but that’s what teams who have the Bucks coming up on their schedules are saying too.  If there was any hope that this group was going to reel off a seven or 10 game winning streak any time soon, it can probably be safely put to bed.  The playoffs are still within reach, but a successful season has long been too far to grab.

Jeremy Schmidt writes the Milwaukee Bucks blog Bucksketball.com.  Follow him on Twitter.  Then become a fan on Facebook (in the sidebar).

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PS. It’s Kareem Bobblehead Night.

- JS)

Milwaukee Bucks	Team	Charlotte Bobcats
Scott Skiles	Coach	Paul Silas
29-43	Record	30-42
Ersan Ilyasova and Chris Douglas-Roberts	Injuries/Inactive	DeSegana Diop, Tyrus Thomas and Joel Przybilla
101.3	Offensive Efficiency	102.8
102.6	Defensive Efficiency	107.2
Date	March 28, 2011
Time	6:00 PM (CST)

Enemy: Truth About It

Point Guard
Brandon Jennings vs. John Wall

Expect big assist numbers and a few turnovers from Wall.  Expect neither from Jennings.  Whereas Wall runs and guns in an offense ranked 11 in the NBA in pace, Jennings is the captain of a cruise ship, rather than a speed boat.  Jennings low assist totals have something to do with his team’s lower than average shooting percentage, but they also have to do with the Bucks offense in the half court.  A lot of times Milwaukee has other players handling the ball aside from Jennings, whose drives through the lane are rarely accompanied by a cutting teammate.  There aren’t a lot of half court offense assist opportunities for the Bucks young point guard.  In Washington’s offense, Wall certainly is creating more and finding teammates on the go.

Advantage: Wizards

Shooting Guard
John Salmons vs. Nick Young

Salmons may be a little more complete than Young, a lot more complete actually, but he isn’t scoring as reliably.  Young seized the opportunity that opened up when Gilbert Arenas left and has been pouring the points in ever since. He’s boosted his monthly scoring output from 13.2 to 18.3 to 21.1 and finally to 22.7 in three February games.  His assist and rebound totals have remained meager though.  Young can get buckets, but that’s about it.  Say what you will about Salmons offensively this season, he’s always going at it on defense and chipping in a few rebounds and assists every night.

Advantage: Wizards

Small Forward
Corey Maggette vs. Rashard Lewis

Maggette runs into the rim.  Lewis launches errant three-point shots.  Both aggravate a lot of people, neither is especially good at defense.

Advantage: Bucks

Power Forward
Ersan Ilyasova vs. Andray Blatche

After a rough January, February has started out a little better for Blatche.  He’s made better than 50% of his shots in three February games after hitting just 40.9% in January.  He’s a jump-shooting, ball-handling big man.  But he has the size and strength to go inside and finish around the hoop too.  His bad habits and general disinterest in winning basketball are what holds him back.  Too bad they are probably fatal flaws, because he’s very talented.  Ilyasova quietly had a smart game against the Raptors.  He spent most of his time attempting to hound Andrea Bargnani into bad shots and misses, but he didn’t take any silly shots and rebounded well defensively.  It wasn’t the biggest scoring game he’s had recently, but it was a smart game, something Ilyasova doesn’t always have.

Advantage: Bucks

Center
Andrew Bogut vs. Javale McGee

Both Bogut and McGee had little statistical impact on the game the last time these teams met, but Bogut’s defense isn’t somethign that’s so easily tracked.  Any time Bogut meets a guy like McGee, a dunking, shot-blocking highlight machine, he typically ends up getting the better of him.  Milwaukee didn’t go to him often enough last time and could look to establish him early again tonight before eventually looking elsewhere.  That strategy worked against Toronto, as Bogut scored six points early and just eight the rest of the way.  He certainly has the size to get McGee deep enough that his shot-blocking is nullified.

Advantage: Bucks

Bench
Keyon Dooling, Carlos Delfino and Luc Mbah a Moute

vs.

Kirk Hinrich, Al Thornton, Hilton Armstrong and Trevor Booker

In his search for consistency and wins, Coach Scott Skiles has shortened his bench up the last two games, playing just three players primarily.  Milwaukee’s finally fairly healthy 50 some games into the season and Coach Skiles wants to try and keep his best players on the court as much as possible.  How long this will last is anyone’s guess though, as Skiles has always been fairly finicky with his rotations.

Advantage: Wizards

Prediction: Bucks 93 – Wizards 82

Milwaukee’s defense seemed re-energized against the Raptors and that should carry over against a Wizards team that’s lost seven in a row.  If Milwaukee can force turnovers and take advantage, they will be in good shape.  If the Wizards are able to get out and run off misses and Milwaukee complies with another sub-40% shooting night, things could tip in the favor of Washington.  Milwaukee must make some shots to prevent Wizard breaks.

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The roar of the crowd late in the fourth quarter of Milwaukee’s 100-87 win over the Washington Wizards Wednesday night seemed a little out place.  Milwaukee had been up virtually the entire period and had long put away the hapless, 0-20 on the road, Wizards.

But the crowd went wild after two Larry Sanders free throws with :12 seconds remaining.  There would be snack wraps.  For just the third time this season, the Bucks surpassed the always challenging 100-point plateau in a home victory.  Certainly not something anyone would have expected after Milwaukee’s rough first quarter.

The Bucks made just five of 18 shots in the first (27.8%) and trailed a hot-shooting Wizards team by eight after one.  But as Milwaukee’s been doing for much of the season, they spent the second quarter crawling back into the game.  Getting back into games hasn’t been much of a problem for the Bucks.  For all of their losses this season to powerhouse competitors and bottom-feeders alike, not very often have the Bucks been blown out.  It’s been getting past a tie that’s been a challenge for them.

That’s where playing the league’s worst teams comes into play.  On a night where the Bucks were by no means at their sharpest, they still were able to blow past the Wizards in a third quarter in which Milwaukee shot 68.8% and limited the Wizards to 25% shooting.  The Bucks grabbed the lead for good halfway through the third quarter and never looked back, eventually winning by 13.  It wasn’t always easy for Milwaukee though.  Coach Scott Skiles said before the game that as much as he wanted a win against Washington, he wanted to see a strong performance out of his team.

” No,” Skiles said when asked after the game if he got the game he wanted from his team.  “I don’t want to take anything away from them, but we can’t be satisfied.  If we were playing Orlando tonight, or the Celtics tonight, we gotta play better than that.  The guys know that.  We can’t be in celebration mode right now, there’s still a lot of things we need to do better.”

Offense

Much like the team itself, Corey Maggette couldn’t do much in the first quarter.  His patented drives for contact were only resulting in ugly shots, not free throws.  His jumper wasn’t going down and he wasn’t contributing elsewhere.  Fortunately there were three quarters left for him to make up for the first.  Maggette finished with 21 points on seven of 18 shooting and shot (and made) seven free throws after that first quarter in which he attempted none.  He even tied his season high with four assists and had now had at least three assists in each of his last four games.  Rejoice!

• With Maggette more apt to kick the ball out and the Bucks in general seemingly always passing the ball Wednesday night, there were plenty of opportunities for Keyon Dooling to shoot.  And shoot well he did.  Dooling made nine of 11 shots and three of four threes Wednesday night, good for a season high 23 points.  Dooling’s often been criticized for his inaccuracy this season (and for not being Luke Ridnour), but his defense has been steady throughout.  He combined that defense with made shots on Wednesday and put together a pretty stellar game.  If that was something he could do more often … look out.

• Depth is a luxury the Wizards don’t have.  That was obvious before Wednesday’s game and even more so after.  While the Wizards got just 18 points off their bench in Milwaukee, the Bucks countered with 35, 19 of which came from Earl Boykins.  Boykins said after the game that with John Salmons out (right hip soreness, day-to-day), it was up to the rest of the guards to step up.  He and Dooling combined for 42 and officially stepped up.

Defense

John Wall was a hot topic before the game and Coach Skiles noted that he is a rookie and has some rookie moments just like everyone else.  Wednesday night seemed like one big rookie moment for Wall.  While his final numbers looked okay, 10 points, 13 assists and six rebounds, Wall failed to have much of an impact beyond the first quarter.  He looked passive, even with the minuscule Boykins covering him.  Bogut on Wall after the game: “He’s a great passer, he’s very, very good at getting into the paint.  We kind of realize that he’s not going to score too much, we tried to just fake at him and make him take tough shots.  In the open floor and transition he’s tough to stop.”

• And transition was the key for Wall early.  Seven of his assists came in the first quarter as the Wizards capitalized on Bucks turnovers and long misses to score eight fast break points.  But the Bucks took better care of the ball as the game went on, shot better and limited the Wizards to just 15 fast break points the rest of the way, while Wall managed only six more assists.

• After rebounding troubles in Houston, the Bucks were back to their typical work on the glass.  Milwaukee won the rebounding battle 43-34 and limited Washington to just six offensive rebounds.  When the Bucks limit second chances and keep the opponents shooting percentage down, they end up looking pretty good.

Final Thoughts

Skiles was abrupt in dismissing this game as the effort he was looking for, but there were some positive steps.  Milwaukee’s shot better than 44% in three straight games now, just the second time this season their offense has been able to put together a streak like that.  More importantly, Corey Maggette is coming around as a starter and providing the Bucks with some kind of consistent offense, something not Salmons, Bogut or Brandon Jennings has been able to do much this season.  With Carlos Delfino possibly practicing tomorrow according to Coach Skiles before the game and Jennings getting closer and closer, the Bucks might have something to build on here.

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Enemy: Truth About It .net

Point Guard
Keyon Dooling vs. John Wall

The dynamic Wall has been all but forgotten about as a rookie of the year candidate with Blake Griffin putting up a rookie season for the ages and his own injury problems, but he’s still a sight to see.  Wall’s creativity was on full display against the Jazz in the Wizard’s Monday win over Utah, as he dished out 15 assists while turning the ball over seven times.  He’s prone to mistakes, but he’s even more prone to do great things.  His speed could be an issue all night for Dooling and, gulp, Boykins.

Advantage: Wizards

Shooting Guard
John Salmons vs. Nick Young

I’ve been hard on Nick Young in the past.  I’ve said he’s an inaccurate gunner who doesn’t look for his teammates whose scoring comes at a cost.  Suddenly though, that all looks foolish.  Because since the Gilbert Arenas trade, Nick Young is playing the best basketball of his career and looks like a real building block for the Wizards.  He’s been doing it for a while, but in the month of January, Young has made 50% of his shots and 47.6% of his threes.  He’s averaging 22.5 points over that stretch and the Wizards have gone four and four.  As it does for most players, his defense has lagged behind.  Young has the team’s second lowest defensive rating (113), but hey, baby steps.  Young’s only 25 and seems like he has a few productive years in front of him.

Advantage: Wizards

Small Forward
Corey Maggette vs. Rashard Lewis

Lewis has been steady, if unspectacular, for the Wizards since arriving from Orlando.  He’s made just about 40% of his threes and occasionally grabbed 10 rebounds while consistently scoring between 10 and 19 points.  He’s not going to explode as often as he did back when he played in Seattle and was featured just because he’s on a bad team again.  His role probably won’t change much from what it was earlier in the season when he was playing the three for the Magic.  Maggette stepped into a starting role on Monday and promptly had his most impressive scoring game of the year (25 points on 11-18 shooting).  The bad news?  Milwaukee lost by seven.  Maggette and Salmons are an interesting team, both occasionally posting up, both getting a lot of plays run for them.  Salmons will occasionally use his plays to create for teammates.  Maggette will often bulldoze the rim while teammates stand idly by.  Sigh.

Advantage: Wizards

Power Forward
Ersan Ilyasova vs. Andray Blatche

Blatche has been putting up okay numbers this season, but not nearly as easily as he did near the end of last season.  After an off-season foot injury, Blatche is shooting just 41.7% this season, well down from his career average of roughly 46%.  The biggest drop off for Blatche has come inside 10-feet where he’s down to a 31.5% success rate.  Ilyasova typically struggles against big men that can fake and handle the ball, but Blatche often seems to shy away from using his ball handling skills to get by defenders.  If he’s attempting long twos or trying to take Ilyasova in the post all night, Milwaukee will be okay with that.

Advantage: Wizards

Center
Andrew Bogut vs. JaVale McGee

Advantage: Bucks

Bench
Luc Mbah a Moute, Earl Boykins, Jon Brockman, Larry Sanders and Chris Douglas-Roberts

vs.

Yi Jianlian, Al Thornton, Kirk Hinrich and Trevor Booker

The Wizards primarily go three deep on the bench in Yi, Thornton and Hinrich, but typically bring one big in for a couple minutes, be it Booker, Hilton Armstrong or Kevin Seraphin. One thing it can safely be said the Wizards are not though, is deep.  Milwaukee will dig deeper into their bench, but it’s often a byproduct of poor performance of their starters and immediate substitutes.  Drew Gooden is questionable, as his plantar faciitis has gotten no better despite his solid play over the past two games.  Thornton can score in bunches and Kirk Hinrich is a tough defender, aside from that, a pretty plain Wizards bench.

Advantage: Bucks

Prediction: Bucks 96 – Wizards 88

If the Bucks lose to the Wizards, the 0-19 on the road this season, Wizards, it’s probably safe to say this is the worst loss of the season.  But Washington is playing better and is certainly looking like a more capable NBA team than they did earlier in the season.  The Arenas Weight no longer hangs over their head and a lot of the Wizards key players and young and just keep getting better.  The Bucks should be able to wear down the Wizards with their defense, but if Milwaukee isn’t paying attention to details, a loss is absolutely not out of the question.  Milwaukee could really use a complete effort, good offense, defense and no lapses in rebounding, to boost their fallen spirits.

Jeremy Schmidt writes the Milwaukee Bucks blog Bucksketball.com.  Follow him on Twitter.  Then become a fan on Facebook (in the sidebar).

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“Generally if anybody’s guarding someone I stick with them.”

-         Scott Skiles (Late 2009)

I don’t think Scott Skiles benched Brandon Jennings for the fourth quarter and overtime of the Hawks game to teach him a lesson, or because his defense was bad or for any other reason than Luke Ridnour was playing better.  It’s too late in the season for Skiles to be sending messages or do anything other than try to get wins.

But Wednesday night, Brandon Jennings looked like he took something out of it.

Jennings spent much of the first two quarters playing an aggressive pressure defense that he has rarely shown off this year.  Jennings is remarkably quick, his change of direction reminds me of a number of nimble insects, but that hasn’t resulted in much when he’s decided to pick up full court.  Wednesday Jennings was jabbing at the ball handler the way a boxer would when feeling out an opponent.  The Wizards point guards were taking them like body blows, staggering but never falling down as they committed just one turnover in the first half, despite losing their respective grips on a few occasions.

But in the third quarter, the Wizards point guards and the rest of the team for that matter, they went down.  Hard.  Looking tired from the hounding Jennings had been placing on them, Randy Foye, Shaun Livingston and Earl Boykins combined for six third quarter turnovers, including the ever so rare eight second call.  The Wizards themselves turned the ball over 11 times in the third and saw an eight point halftime deficit turn into a 17 point mountain that they would be unable to climb.

This was not one of Jennings finer offensive performances, in fact it ranks right up there with any as his worst when you factor his six turnovers into his 2-12 shooting performance.  Jennings ability to limit turnovers has been his saving grace as his shots have continued to fly towards everything but the bottom of the hoop.  Jennings seemed down trodden in the locker room, even when I mentioned the rarity of a forced eight second call in the league.

“Yeah, I mean, my offense wasn’t going so I had to fall back on something else and just went to the defensive end,” said Jennings.  “I didn’t have a good offensive evening and I was just trying to put pressure on the defensive end tonight.”

Skiles, who was visibly upset with his team’s performance (he referred to the game as “a step back”) stuck with Jennings in this one.

“We’re trying to win a game; that’s what we’re trying to do,” Skiles said after the game.  “Obviously he hasn’t had much luck finding the basket, but he was trying to apply pressure, he had good active hands.  He has his moments like that, he’s trying to find other ways to help and he did a pretty good job tonight.”

Offense

The turnovers were up for the Bucks in this one, but they were able to manage 29 assists to their 16 turnovers and saw five different players score in double figures.  In the eight games since John Salmons arrival, the Bucks have had at least five players score in double figures in each game but two – and in each of those four guys reached double figures with at least one player scoring nine.  This is the way teams without superstars win in the NBA; unselfish basketball, predicated on getting stops and balancing the scoring effort.

• “Turk-ish Thun-der” was the chant that came roaring from Squad Six with five and a half minutes to go in the game, this time with more purpose than usual.  Ersan Ilyasova, who the rowdy group has taken to calling “Turkish Thunder” really brought some thunder on a transition dunk that fell just out of the reach of shot-blocking machine JaVale McGee. This was just one of many fine moments for Ilyasova in this one though, he finished with 19 points (7-13 FG 1-3 3 FG), 10 rebounds and a career high six assists.

• When Salmons first joined the Bucks, he was scoring points, but without great efficiency or shooting percentage.  That’s changed in the last few games.  Salmons shot over 50% once again, bringing him to 58.6% (27-46) over his past three games.  He also found himself on the receiving end of a number of Washington turnovers and finished with three steals.

• Jerry Stackhouse had another good game.  Should I still be surprised?  I openly wondered how much the vet could have left when the Bucks signed him off the scrap heap and now I’ll gleefully admit how misguided my pleas to stay away were.  Were Wednesday’s game being played on Sega Genisis in 1993 and not in the Bradley Center in 2010, Stackhouse would have been “On Fire” as he came in and hit his first three successive shots.  The good feelings would not end there though, as he finished with 13 points (6-12 FG 1-3 3FG), his fifth consecutive game over double digits.

Defense

When making my case for Andrew Bogut as the Bucks defensive player of the year, this game might not get mention.  After all, what kind of dominating defensive center can go nearly an entire game without grabbing a rebound?  But Bogut was still there and still made his presence be known, swatting away five shots and taking a charge on a clumsy drive by McGee.

• McGee, by the way, reminds me a lot of Dan Gadzuric circa 2003.  You know, before he got his big contract, when he was young, spry and full of excitement.  Gadz used to catch lobs and block shots on a regular basis; much like McGee did all night Wednesday.  McGee had both hands on the rim all night, like it were his steering wheel or something.  He had four dunks and blocked three shots.   Where his career goes will be interesting.  Will he end up like Gadzuric or will he evolve into a Sam Dalembert type shot-blocking, rebounder?

• 21 turnovers for Washington and just 18 assists.  That’s never a recipe for success and the Bucks seemed especially aggressive and suffocating on the perimeter in this one.  The Wizards high shooting percentage, 45.5, may have had something to do with some of the easy buckets they got off a few Bucks gambles.  Coach Skiles doesn’t approve of gambling on the defensive end, but when the Bucks are putting this much pressure on a team, it can really pay off.  24-16 advantage for Milwaukee on points off turnovers.

Final Thoughts

Wait, the Bucks won by 13 points, forced 21 turnovers, shot and made more free throws than their opponent, his 47.5% of their shots and aren’t happy with their effort?

Is this for real?  What were the odds of such a scenario at the start of the season?  That’s the reality the Bucks are currently living in though, and it’s delightful.  Now 7-1 since the arrival of John Salmons, the Bucks are looking more and more like the fifth best team in the East.  Best of all, they are instilling confidence in their fans, a trait that hasn’t exactly been a hallmark of Bucks teams of recent past.  Walking into the Bradley Center not only thinking that the Bucks are going to win, but that they are more talented than the team they’re about to play is a true pleasure and one that may not seem as sweet in a year or two.

So for now, cherish the feeling.

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Vs. (and then At)

Washington Wizards (Flip Saunders) 21-36

Dates: 3/3/2010 & 3/5/2010

Times: 7:00 (CST) & 6:00 (CST)

TV: FS Wisconsin & None

Matchups

Point Guard

Brandon Jennings vs. Randy Foye

A lot has changed since the last time these teams met.  Gone is Gilbert Arenas.  You may have heard about him, he had some problems, a gun was involved.  In as the starter at the point is Randy Foye, an off-season pickup last June, sure to help turn things around for the Wizards in their quest to crack the top four or at least make the playoffs this year.  The best laid plans, right?  Foye’s game is more off ball scorer than ball distributor and he’s been forced back into the role he struggled with his first few years in the league.  Foye had a lot of success in the Wizards last trip to Milwaukee, particularly when Jennings was in the game defending him.  I’d think the Wizards haven’t forgotten this and will allow him to go at Jennings from the get-go in Wednesday’s game.

Advantage: Bucks

Shooting Guard

John Salmons vs. Mike Miller

Why doesn’t Mike Miller shoot more threes?  Can anyone explain this phenomenon?  Miller attempted seven threes a game three seasons ago and now finds himself shooting just 6.8 TOTAL shots each night.  Miller is hitting on 55% of his threes this year!   Why isn’t he shooting more!?  Washington Wizards Blog TruthAboutIt.net makes some sense of Miller’s reluctance to shoot for me: Miller is a main guy on this squad. But it seems like he has an issue with being a main guy. That is a problem.  Yes, that is a problem – if you’re a Wizards fan.  As a Bucks fan, I’m delighted and hope Miller continues to avoid shooting for at least two more games.

Advantage: Bucks

Small Forward

Carlos Delfino vs. Al Thornton

What’s up with the N after the R in Thornton?  Is that just to make difficult the lives of those who must write about members of the Thornton family?  Regardless, ThorNton, recently acquired from the Clippers has scored in double figures in each of his six games as a Wizard and is shooting over 50%.  Given that his role has always been that of a scorer, these are positive developments in the career of Al ThorNton.  Delfino keeps playing his role for the Bucks, becoming increasingly reliable at grabbing a few steals, five rebounds or so and hitting at least one three a game.  He’s hit one in his last 12 contests, even if his three-point percentage has dipped a bit since January.

Advantage: Wizards

Power Forward

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute vs. Andray Blatche

Blatche has BLOWN UP since the Washington Fire Sale.  Since February 17^th, when 30 minutes on the basketball court became a staple in the life of Blatche, he’s averaged 26.5 points, 11.7 rebounds and 1.4 blocks.  Blatche has been everything the Wizards hoped he’d be when the drafted him in the second round five years ago as an athlete brimming with potential but carrying the immense burden of being immature.  Blatche has reportedly matured quite a bit in the short time since the veterans have been shipped out of D.C. and if he’s got a good head on his broad shoulders, the sky remains the limit for Blatche.  His athleticism will make him a very tough matchup for the Bucks at the power forward spot.

Advantage: Wizards

Center

Andrew Bogut vs. Javale McGee

McGee is to Bogut as a straw is to a tire gauge.  That is to say, McGee cannot physically stand up to the much larger and stronger Bogut down low.  McGee does have a significant advantage in the speed and jumping categories, but Bogut has become wise with how to use his size and should have little problem nullifying those edges.  This is a game where Bogut could do serious work.

Advantage: Bucks

Bench

Jerry Stackhouse, Luke Ridnour, Kurt Thomas and Ersan Ilyasova

Vs.

Earl Boykins, Nick Young, Quinton Ross and Fabricio Oberto

Nick Young never stops shooting!  Young appears to be playing a never ending game of pop-a-shot basketball, only on a much larger court and with consequences worse than mockery by friends.  Young’s playing time has dwindled in recent weeks and he’s in danger of falling out of the rotation completely.  Ross, the defensive specialist acquired from Dallas, has been fairly non-existent on offense as usual but could see some time if a Buck perimeter player gets hot.  Boykins beat the Bucks back in December with a fake that got him to the line against Brandon Jennings at the end of the game. He’s still a good scorer and probably the best point guard the Wizards have.  With a few days off since their loss on Sunday in which the bench saw plenty of minutes, the Bucks veteran bench has had some time to rest up and get fresh.

Advantage: Bucks

Prediction: Bucks 106 – Wizards 94

Barring an atypical effort from the Wizards perimeter players, they just don’t seem to have enough to compete with the Bucks.  That would have seemed ludicrous at the start of the season when the Wizards were big on talent, but not on chemistry.  The Bucks have often used chemistry to sneak by teams, primarily in the start of the season, but as teams have sold and the Bucks have bought, more and more we’re seeing the Bucks appear to be the more talented team.  Fortunately, the Bucks have added talent while keeping their chemistry intact.  That explains the Bucks recent surge to a T.

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The hundreds aren’t the way to go for the Bucks.  The Bucks have allowed their opponent to score 100+ points on eight occasions this year.  The Bucks are 2-6 in those games.  They have held their opponent under 100 points nine times.  The Bucks are 7-2 int hose games.  Sometimes, it’s just that easy.  But for as much as the idea is easy, the execution of that idea isn’t quite as easy.

The stats against Washington were not pretty Wednesday night.  The Wizards largely had their way with the Bucks defense:

• 54.3 percent shooting
• 25 made free throws to nine for the Bucks
• Six players in double figures
• 25-10 advantage on fast break points
• 13 dunks/layups to eight for the Bucks

54 percent shooting?  Doesn’t that say it all?  Not often can a team win a game in which they allow 54 percent shooting unless they’re on fire themselves.  The free throw differential was excessive as usual and while the Bucks made up those points by hitting six more three’s than the Wizards, that kills them.  Having to make three’s is difficult.  Teams don’t often shoot more than 40 percent on three’s and that’s what keeps the Bucks overall shooting percentage down.  But that doesn’t even kill them in this one if any defense is played.

The Buck guards aren’t having much success keeping their men out of the paint.

Nick Young for one was shredding the Bucks.  The same Nick Young whose game I was so critical of Wednesday morning.  The Nick Young who does nothing but score.  Well, he again did little but score (he did chip in five rebounds) but he scored a whole bunch.  Young poured in 21 points on 7-12 shooting.  Toss in his 7-7 performance from the free throw line and he joins Vince Carter, John Salmons and Thabo Sefolohsa as the latest shooting guard to score with great efficiency.  The return of Luc Richard Mbah a Moute should help the Bucks in the next few games, but still won’t fix the Bucks alone.  Jennings has been getting shredded with some regularity too and that reared it’s head again when Earl Boykins sprung for 11 in the fourth quarter.  It’s tough to nail down what exactly has put the Bucks in this rut, but they need to figure out how to consistently bring more effort on the defensive end.

Offense

That’s enough about the defense.  It hasn’t been great and they’ll have to figure it out soon.  But the offense isn’t without it’s faults.

• That three-point shooting to free-throw shooting situation I was talking about?  It rears it’s head at seemingly the worst times.  The Bucks are down 100-99 with 33 seconds left.  They bring it down the court and work the offense a little, eventually leading to a pick and roll in which Brandon Jennings dribbled into the paint drawing Charlie Bell’s man off of him.  Jennings kicked it out to bell standing outside the three-point line.  This was probably the best shot the Bucks could get at this point.  Bell shot and missed leading to a Wizard three-point lead with less than 20 seconds to go.  But if the Bucks have a guy who can drive here he could have caught that ball outside wide open as Bell did and made a move to get into the paint for free throws or a lay-up.  It’s  an offensive dimension they lack and brings the probability of a basket from roughly 50 percent on plays like these down to the high 30’s.  More often than not, Bell won’t make that shot.

• The Brandon Jennings struggles continue.  17 points on 7-21 shooting with seven assists and zero turnovers.  Some things to like, some things to hate.  He hit a clutch three with roughly 10 seconds left that tied it up, but then fouled Boykins with one second left while he was shooting, putting a 94 percent free throw shooter on the line in a tie game.  And that was the game.  Jennings was 5-13 inside the arc, a small victory in a way.  He hit a number of runner/floater shots that he hasn’t been making lately and it was his uncharacteristic 2-8 showing behind the arc that really brought down his percentage.  This is a probably a realistic idea of how good he is right now, but not any glimpse into the future.  He’ll get better and he’ll probably be a pretty significant threat on a more consistent basis as early as next year.  The seven assists and zero turnovers are a good indication that he is indeed a point guard though.

• Bogut STRUGGLED.  I was worried Brendan Haywood’s length and strength would give Bogut problems and they certainly did.  He was getting very few clean looks and his touch didn’t seem to be there even when he did get some looks.  On the plus side he was able to dish out five assists, a sign that he recognized it was not a favorable match-up for him.

• With all the negative things I’ve had to say about this one, you must be wondering how the Bucks were even this close.  The bench.  Luke Ridnour and Hakim Warrick each had 20.  Ridnour on his typical collection of pull-up jumpers and occasional three point shot and Warrick on a few jump shots and a bunch of dunks/layups and free throws.  The Bucks were 9-12 on free throws — Warrick was 8-8.  That’s the kind of Warrick performance that we’d love to see every game and the Bucks need more often.

Final Thoughts

Good teams don’t win close games, they avoid them.  That’s the adage I think most sums up a game like this.  If the Bucks were all that good, they would have blown the Wizards out of this one.  On a basic level, they outplayed the Wizards, only nine turnovers to the Wiz’s 17.  The Bucks didn’t play sloppy, but lacked the ability to absolutely get buckets when they needed them.  And the defense sucked.  So that’s how we ended up here.  Now 9-8 the Bucks outlook doesn’t really change all that much.  They still need to figure out how to bring more effort on the road and they will be better when they get LRMAM back ideally.  Chalk this one up as a bad loss and one to remember when the Bucks are trying to scrape together a few wins to make the playoffs at the end of the year.

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(Likely) Inactives: Joe Alexander, Michael Redd

at

Washington Wizards (Flip Saunders) 6-10

(Likely) Inactives: Jarvis Crittenton, Mike James and Mike Miller

Date: 12/2/2009

Game time: 6:00 (CST)

TV: FS Wisconsin

Match-ups

Point Guard

Brandon Jennings vs. Gilbert Arenas

So is it all done then?  The whole Gilbert Arenas is a fun, up-and-coming star who shoots when he wants, makes up crazy names for himself and makes the Wizards a relevant team, is it done?  It sure looks like it.  When I mosey on over to basketball-reference.com to check out a few things about other teams I usually have an idea of what I’m going to see.  But I didn’t have a clue on what I’d see about Gil when I checked him out.  Why didn’t I have a clue?  Because I haven’t heard anything at all about Gil or the Wiz all year.  They’ve been irrelevant, aside from an injury here or an injury there.  I vaguely remember hearing that Arenas supposedly wants to be fun again.  I thought I heard something about him needing one million followers on Twitter before his first tweet.  But no longer are his on-court exploits worth much.  That’s what knee surgery after knee surgery will do to you.  He’s 28, a touch younger than the Bucks own former star robbed of mobility by injuries Michael Redd. To think either of them will be relevant as stars in the league again seems like a stretch.

Advantage: Bucks

Shooting Guard

Charlie Bell vs. Nick Young

I know Nick Young is athletic and I know he has good size, but I can’t recall ever seeing  player put up the numbers Young puts up.  How is he in the NBA?  His career numbers are nine points, one assist and just a shade under two rebounds per game.  When people say, he’s just a scorer, they usually are embellishing a little.  Usually the player will dish a few assists or grab a rebound here and there.  Young REALLY is just a scorer.  That’s all.  He’s like the anti-Charlie Bell.  Bell isn’t very athletic or big, but this season he’s dropping in a couple of assists and a few rebounds each game in addition to diving around for loose balls and being pesky.

Advantage: Bucks

Small Forward

Carlos Delfino vs. Caron Butler

“Tough Juice” remains the coolest nickname in the NBA, even if Caron Butler’s game has taken a step (or two … or three) back this year.  Something seems to be off about more and more Wizards as you look down the line.  Could it be the influx of a few better players who’ve diluted the numbers a bit, but made the team better off for it?  Nah, they are 6-10.  Could it be the return of Arenas shifting Butler from the comfort zone he’d assumed in the time Arenas was out?  Seems probable.  I’m sure it’s a number of things, but for whatever reason, Butler’s shooting is down to 41 percent his year.  This is not the guy who’s made two of the last three all-star games.

Advantage: Wizards

Power Forward

Ersan Ilyasova vs. Antawn Jamison

Wizards without Jamison: 2-7.  Wizards with Jamison 4-3.  While he may not be the most influential player in the league by any stretch of the imagination, it’s clear that the Wizards should be glad to have Jamison back.  The team is heavily built around their three stars and having any one of them out makes it difficult for them to maintain any momentum.  Jamison has had three games over 30 points since returning and is up over 50 percent from the field.  That’s impressive since he’s shooting five three’s a game at just 31 percent.  He’s been a load to deal with inside of that arc.  Bizarrely, Jamison has hit on just 58 percent of his free throws — he’s usually in the mid 70 percent range.  If he get’s to the line a lot against Milwaukee, which he likely will, and isn’t connecting once again it could swing Wednesday’s game in the Bucks favor.  The battle on the boards between Ilyasova and Jamison will be one to watch.

Advantage: Wizards

Center

Andrew Bogut vs. Brendon Haywood

Haywood reminds me of Sam Dalembert … but good.  He’s long, he’s athletic and he can block shots.  He’s a terrific rebounder to boot.  Why do I reference my recollection of Dalmbert when thinking of Haywood?  The Dalembeast gave Andrew Bogut all kinds of problems opening night.  Athletic, long and strong players typically are more challenging to deal with for a center like Bogut.  Haywood has the strength to hold up to him in the post and the length to challenge his shots.  On Monday against Joakim Noah, Bogut was able to power into him and get the shots he wanted since Noah is largely without much girth.  Haywood has a lot more strength and experience than Noah.  It will not be so easy for Bogut Wednesday night.

Advantage: Bucks

Bench

Kurt Thomas, Luke Ridnour (?), Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (?), Jodie Meeks and Hakim Warrick

vs.

Randy Foye, Andray Blatche, Earl Boykins, Deshawn Stevenson and Javale McGee

The Wiz are still attempting to hammer out a bench rotation,while the Bucks aren’t sure whether LRMAM or Luke Ridnour will play.  I’d guess yes on LRMAM and no on Ridnour based on some things I’ve seen.  Earl Boykins is back from Russia (or wherever he was) and is giving the Wizards some good minutes in relief of Arenas.  He’s tossing around assists, keeping the ball moving and shooting at an abnormally high percentage.  McGee and Blatche are not dissimilar and are not all that great.  I was high on McGee for some time, but I also once called a radio show in 2005 wondering why Dan Gadzuric couldn’t be a starter in the NBA.

Advantage: Bucks

Prediction: Bucks 96 – Wizards 93

The Wizards are much more of that 4-3 team they are with Jamison than the 2-7 team they were without him.  But that still doesn’t mean they are all that great.  They seem to be searching for consistency and energy after every single game.  TruthAboutIt.net has a terrific montage of interview clips after their last game, at home mind you, a loss against the Bobcats.  The recurring theme?  Energy.   The Wizards have the talent to assume it’s an 82 game season and wins can be made up.  They have guys who’ve won together, made playoff runs and seen success.  They assume they can do it again and will do it when push comes to shove.  Their waiting, not acting.

The Bucks might have as much talent, but their leaders (Bogut and Bell) have seen a lot of losses over the past five years.  They want every single win.  Have you heard anyone on the Bucks even mention energy in a loss this year?  That’s one thing Bucks fans have not had to think twice about.  They’ve wanted every single game.  It comes with the territory when a team suddenly appears good after having sucked for years and years.  Each game probably means a little more to them than it does the other team.  So that’s why I think they’ll come out with this one.

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